"Factors affecting hospital admission and recovery stay duration of in-patient motor victims in Spain"

Hospital expenses are a major cost driver of healthcare systems in Europe, with motor injuries being the leading mechanism of hospitalizations. This paper investigates the injury characteristics which explain the hospitalization of victims of traffic accidents that took place in Spain. Using a motor insurance database with 16,081 observations a generalized Tobit regression model is applied to analyse the factors that influence both the likelihood of being admitted to hospital after a motor collision and the length of hospital stay in the event of admission. The consistency of Tobit estimates relies on the normality of perturbation terms. Here a semi-parametric regression model was fitted to test the consistency of estimates, concluding that a normal distribution of errors cannot be rejected. Among other results, it was found that older men with fractures and injuries located in the head and lower torso are more likely to be hospitalized after the collision, and that they also have a longer expected length of hospital recovery stay.Body injuries, Heckit estimator, semi-parametric estimator, Hausman test JEL classification:C24, I10

Measuring Intermediary Determinants of Early Childhood Health: A Composite Index Comparing Colombian Departments

In recent years there has been growing interest in composite indicators as an efficient tool of analysis and a method of prioritizing policies. This paper presents a composite index of intermediary determinants of child health using a multivariate statistical approach. The index shows how specific determinants of child health vary across Colombian departments (administrative subdivisions). We used data collected from the 2010 Colombian Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for 32 departments and the capital city, Bogotá. Adapting the conceptual framework of Commission on Social Determinants of Health (CSDH), five dimensions related to child health are represented in the index: material circumstances, behavioural factors, psychosocial factors, biological factors and the health system. In order to generate the weight of the variables, and taking into account the discrete nature of the data, principal component analysis (PCA) using polychoric correlations was employed in constructing the index. From this method five principal components were selected. The index was estimated using a weighted average of the retained components. A hierarchical cluster analysis was also carried out. The results show that the biggest differences in intermediary determinants of child health are associated with health care before and during delivery

Disseny d'enquestes per a la investigació social

La publicació que es presenta ha estat pensada com a manual per seguir l'assignatura de Disseny d'Enquestes, que s'imparteix al Grau d'Estadística de la Universitat de Barcelona. Tot i així, el seu contingut és vàlid per qualsevol persona interessada en saber com es dissenya i es duu a terme una enquesta, des de la idea inicial, fins a la presentació dels resultats finals.Agraïm l'ajut rebut de la Generalitat de Catalunya dins la convocatòria d'Ajuts per al finançament de projectes per a la millora de la qualitat docent a les universitats catalanes per a l'any 2009, MQD-00166

A comparative analysis of tree-based models classifying imbalanced breath alcohol data

When applied to binary data, most classification algorithms behave well provided the dataset is balanced. However, when one single class includes the majority of cases, a good predictive performance for the minority class is not easy to achieve. We examine the strengths and weaknesses of three tree-based models when dealing with imbalanced data.We also explore sampling and cost sensitive methods as strategies for improving machine learning algorithms. An application to a large dataset of breath alcohol content tests performed in Catalonia (Spain) to detect drunk drivers is shown. The Random Forest method proved to be the model of choice if a high performance is required, while down- sampling strategies resulted in a significant reduction in computing time. When predicting alcohol impairment, the area of control (built-up or not), hour of day and drivers age were the most relevant variables for classification

Ageing and health-related quality of life: evidence from Catalonia (Spain) [WP-IR]

Reaching advanced old age is more common now than ever. The sustained growth in longevity raises questions about why some people can feel in good quality of life until the last stages, while others seem to accuse the natural deterioration to a larger extent. The self-perceived quality of life has a subjective component, but is also mediated by some easily measurable factors such as sociodemography, health, functioning and lifestyles

Circular con tasa de alcohol superior a la legal: caracterización del conductor según la vía de circulación

Se realiza un estudio transversal de los controles policiales para la medición de la tasa de alcohol en aire espirado (AAE) llevados a cabo en Cataluña en el año 2013. La muestra consta de 464.134 pruebas, de las cuales el 66% se realizaron en vías interurbanas y el 34% en vías urbanas. Método: Se mide si el conductor sobrepasa el límite legal en miligramos de alcohol por litro de aire espirado. En el caso de conductores noveles o profesionales el límite legal es de 0,15 mg/l y para el resto de conductores es de 0,25 mg/l. Se realiza un análisis descriptivo del porcentaje de conductores detectados por encima del límite legalmente permitido en vías interurbanas y en vías urbanas, según características del conductor y del vehículo, motivo de la prueba, y momento en que se lleva a cabo. En una segunda parte, se ajustan dos modelos lineales generalizados con vínculo logarítmico y familia binomial, según si la prueba se realiza en vía interurbana o en vía urbana. Resultados: La edad del conductor, la nacionalidad o la franja horaria en la que se realiza la prueba inciden de forma diferente en la probabilidad de sobrepasar el límite legal de alcohol, dependiendo de si la prueba se realiza en vía interurbana o urbana. Conclusión: Diseñar políticas de seguridad vial específicas según el tipo de vía puede ayudar a reducir la proporción de conductores que superan los límites legales de alcohol en aire espirado y, por tanto, la accidentalidad

Is the educational health gap increasing for women? Results from Catalonia (Spain)

Health expectancies vary worldwide according to socioeconomic status (SES). The lower SES usually show health disadvantage and the higher SES a health advantage compared to the average. The educational level of individuals is strongly linked to their SES

Hospitalizations from covid-19: a health planning tool

OBJETIVO Predecir el número futuro de hospitalizaciones por covid-19 a partir del número de casos positivos diagnosticados. MÉTODO Usando datos del Panel covid-19 registrados en España en la Red Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiológica (Renave), se ajusta un modelo de regresión con estructura multiplicativa para explicar y predecir el número de hospitalizaciones a partir de la serie retardada de casos positivos diagnosticados durante el periodo entre el 11 de mayo de 2020 y el 20 de septiembre de 2021. Se analiza el efecto sobre el número de hospitalizaciones del tiempo transcurrido desde el inicio del programa de vacunación. RESULTADOS El número de retardos de la serie de casos positivos que mayor capacidad explicativa tiene sobre el número de hospitalizaciones es de nueve días. La variabilidad del número de hospitalizaciones explicada por el modelo es elevada (R2 ajustado: 96,6%). Antes del inicio del programa de vacunación, el número esperado de ingresos hospitalarios en el día t era igual al 20,2% de los casos positivos del día t-9 elevado a 0,906. Iniciado el programa de vacunación, este porcentaje se redujo un 0,3% diario. Con el mismo modelo se obtiene que en la primera ola de la pandemia el número de casos positivos fue más de seis veces el que figura en los registros oficiales. CONCLUSIONES Partiendo de los casos de covid-19 detectados hasta una fecha, el modelo propuesto permite estimar el número de hospitalizaciones con nueve días de antelación. Ello lo convierte en una herramienta útil para prever con cierta anticipación la presión hospitalaria que el sistema sanitario tendrá que soportar como consecuencia de la enfermedad.OBJECTIVE Estimate the future number of hospitalizations from Covid-19 based on the number of diagnosed positive cases. METHOD Using the covid-19 Panel data recorded in Spain at the Red Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiológica, Renave (Epidemiological Surveillance Network), a regression model with multiplicative structure is adjusted to explain and predict the number of hospitalizations from the lagged series of positive cases diagnosed from May 11, 2020 to September 20, 2021. The effect of the time elapsed since the vaccination program starting on the number of hospitalizations is reviewed. RESULTS Nine days is the number of lags in the positive cases series with greatest explanatory power on the number of hospitalizations. The variability of the number of hospitalizations explained by the model is high (adjusted R2: 96.6%). Before the vaccination program starting, the expected number of hospitalizations on day t was 20.2% of the positive cases on day t-9 raised to 0.906. After the vaccination program started, this percentage was reduced by 0.3% a day. Using the same model, we find that in the first pandemic wave the number of positive cases was more than six times that reported on official records. CONCLUSIONS Starting from the covid-19 cases detected up to a given date, the proposed model allows estimating the number of hospitalizations nine days in advance. Thus, it is a useful tool for forecasting the hospital pressure that health systems shall bear as a consequence of the disease

Risk of admission to intensive care units due to Covid-19: comparative analysis between European countries

The Covid-19 epidemic has posed an unprecedented challenge to the European healthcare system, which has had to cope with a much higher than usual demand for hospitalization. This work is devoted to the construction and comparison of risk indicators of admission to intensive care units (ICU) for Covid-19 for eight European countries. (...

Drinking patterns and drunk-driving behaviour in Catalonia, Spain: A comparative study

This study explores three alcohol-related databases so as to provide a comprehensive understanding of drinking patterns and the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving in Catalonia (Spain). The rate of alcohol-impaired drivers is compared with the percentage of drinkers in this population, with a particular focus on heavy episodic drinkers. Two strategies adopted by law enforcement agents when conducting alcohol breath tests are examined: (i) non-random and (ii) random approaches to roadblock location and driver selection. We find that heavy drinker profiles (in terms of age and gender) closely match those of alcohol-impaired drivers detected at strategically located, non-random sobriety checkpoints (especially in the case of female drivers), and that they also correlate with the age-gender distribution of drivers involved in road accidents with victims. Different drink driving patterns are detected when sobriety checkpoints are located randomly and drivers are tested at random. Older drivers are identified as a risk group as they abandon the safer driving habits in relation to alcohol shown when they were middle-aged. A combination of non-random and random controls would increase driver perception of their chances of being detected when drink driving. As such, the whole population, regardless of their drinking profile, would be alerted to the serious personal, social and legal implications of alcohol-impaired driving